Model priors · not customer evidence
Market & Industry
Beachhead2.4M households
Market size~$350M/yr SAM
Growth8–10% CAGR
Who you are sizing
Who
Adult child coordinating a parent's care
Geography
US suburban markets with distributed siblings
Beachhead
Two+ siblings rotating weekly care, post-first-scare
How many
~2.4M households in the beachhead
Buying role
Local sibling researches and pays; others join free
Ability to pay
$12/mo vs $125/hr care manager
Industry landscape
RivalryModerate
No dominant sibling operating log yet
SubstitutesHigh
Group chat + spreadsheet is the default
Buyer powerModerate-high
Families compare to free tools
Supplier powerLow-moderate
SMS delivery is commoditized
New entrantsModerate
Easy to copy; habit creates modest moat
Why now
Aging boomers, distributed adult children, post-COVID comfort with shared health updates
How these numbers were built
- Looked up Census Bureau 2022 — ~53M US adults 65+; ~10M with two+ coordinating adult children.
- Estimated ~2.4M rotating weekly handoffs × $144/year willingness ≈ $350M beachhead SAM.
- Looked up Grand View Research 2024 — US elder-care coordination software ~8–10% CAGR through 2030.
- Inferred Industry forces inferred from named substitutes in the opportunity signal.